Hello internet, and welcome to The Science They Don't Want You to Know. As I have mentioned in the first post of this series, I am doing research regarding the statistical viability of currently unconfirmed conspiracies (no leaked documents) by way of currently known conspiracies (documents have been leaked). The primary purpose of this initial research is to gather particular information, specifically how many people were involved in the actual conspiracies and the length of time which these conspiracies took place. If you have not read the first post, you should read it here.
In today's world of the internet -- and with the modern obsession with distrust of the government -- there are few who don't know at least of the existence of the CIA project called MK-Ultra. For those of you who don't know, it was a project in the 50's and 60's where they attempted to develop direct mind control similar to what happened to Geordi la Forge in the Star Trek TNG season 4 episode "The Mind's Eye". These attempts of mind control are different than the method of brainwashing (though there is an exposed conspiracy of governmental control of media for brainwashing; when the blog on that is posted, I will link to it). There were attempts to destroy all documents relating to MK Ultra in 1973, but there were a few sheets which escaped destruction because they were initially misfiled and placed in files unrelated to the MK Ultra Project. This is a testament to the necessity for properly filing documents immediately, especially if there is the possibility of "destroying all relevant evidence", but that's a topic for another day.
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| To be fair, nobody gets filing right. |
In the late 1940's, the CIA began testing the tests of certain behavioral modifying drugs (such as LSD) in response to reports that the Soviet Union was doing the same. This was shortly after the Soviet Union produced their first nuclear chain reaction in a lab, but before they tested their first nuclear bomb. Since it was after the first successful Soviet controlled chain reaction but before their first nuke test -- and since there is a lack of specificity to when in that time period the CIA started this program -- 1949 will be considered the first year of the conspiracy to maximize the likelihood of the conspiracy being real for the unknowns I calculate in the future.
The project obtained it's legal start in 1953 with approval from the senate subcommittee overseeing the CIA. The fact that the CIA went behind the back of congress (in general) is not what makes MK Ultra unconscionable; it's what they were doing in the program. The program was designed to slip unsuspecting people LCD and other "mind-altering/controlling drugs" and see if they were able to convince them of lies and prod their psyches to perform actions they would not normally perform. These tests were longer and more in depth than I am letting on, but to go into detail would require a lengthy book on the subject -- decidedly longer than a blog post can contain.
In 1955, there was a letter sent from the CIA to Congress which expressed the need for the secrecy of this project. Makes sense, seeing as how enemies getting their hands on this material would be a bad idea for national security. The letter, though, mentioned that the public cannot be made aware of these activities because of the immoral nature of the project. This tells us that they knew that what they were doing was immoral.
Shortly thereafter, those working on the project realized that they were going nowhere with the research, so they throttled back the work force for the project. It was eventually disbanded and they had all of the documents destroyed.
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| Just, the largest. |
In 1955, there was a letter sent from the CIA to Congress which expressed the need for the secrecy of this project. Makes sense, seeing as how enemies getting their hands on this material would be a bad idea for national security. The letter, though, mentioned that the public cannot be made aware of these activities because of the immoral nature of the project. This tells us that they knew that what they were doing was immoral.
Shortly thereafter, those working on the project realized that they were going nowhere with the research, so they throttled back the work force for the project. It was eventually disbanded and they had all of the documents destroyed.
Or so they thought.
The program was made public in 1975, when requests for a particular set of documents had files in it from the MK Ultra project, like the world's darkest Easter egg. Shortly thereafter, a former agent for the CIA came public saying that yes, the CIA performed these amoral actions. Then a Freedom of Information Act request revealed a large amount of documents on the matter, and a sizable amount of the programs actions and intents were exposed to the public, even as we have to handle the fact that we won't know the entire story.
The program was made public in 1975, when requests for a particular set of documents had files in it from the MK Ultra project, like the world's darkest Easter egg. Shortly thereafter, a former agent for the CIA came public saying that yes, the CIA performed these amoral actions. Then a Freedom of Information Act request revealed a large amount of documents on the matter, and a sizable amount of the programs actions and intents were exposed to the public, even as we have to handle the fact that we won't know the entire story.
Since the mathematics depends on the end point being the point of exposure, and not the point of ending the conspiracy, we now can calculate the time frame. This is from 1948 to 1975, or 27 years. Also, based on the released reports, there were about 20,000 people involved in MK Ultra.
The per person probability can be calculated by 1-((1-(ln2/t)^(1/N)). Plugging in t=27 and N=20000, we get an intrinsic probability of p=1.3003E-6 (0.0000013003). This p value (not to be confused with the statistical P-value for the P-test) will be used to obtain the average probability of leak per person per year for the unknown case. Since this is the first value for annual per conspirator probability of exposure, 0.0000013003 is the current average value.
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