The Science of Life

As promised last time , I am going to cover Baye's Theorem. If Tree diagram is the common name for Bayes Theorem.  Recall that conditional probability is given by $P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \wedge B)}{P(B)}$.   For tree diagrams, let's say that we have events A, B 1 , B 2 , B 3 , … (the reason we have multiple B's is because they all are within the same family of events) such that the events in the family of B are mutually exclusive and the sum of the probabilities of the events in the family of B are equal to 1. Then we have $$P(B_i \mid A)= \frac{P(B_i)*P(A \mid B_i)}{\sum_{m=1}^{n}[P(B_m)*P(A \mid B_m)]}$$  What this means is reliant on the tree diagram. If we are only looking at the sub-items of A, this is what the tree diagram would look like. If J has a probability of 100%, and P(C) and P(D) are not 0, then when we are trying to find the probability of any of the B's being true given that A is true, we have to set the probability of A to be t...

As promised last time , this lecture introduces the concept of Probability Theory.  This is necessary to all statistical calculation.  After all, statistical analysis depends on the concept of probability in order to get to the statistics, especially when we start dealing with regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The concept of probability deals with Venn diagrams.  For those of you who don't know, Venn diagrams are those diagrams which lets us easily represent which elements two (or more) sets have in common and which elements they don't have in common. Seems about right. So yes, they can be used to analyze costs.  And the intersection of physical systems.  In fact, they can be utilized to analyze almost any type of system.  I'm currently using venn diagrams to analyze known conspiracies  such as the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment ,  the NSA spying scandal , and the governments' poisoning of the alcohol supply during...