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The Truth is Out There: Area 51

Hello internet, and welcome to The Science They Don't Want You to Know.  As I have mentioned in the first post of this series, I am doing research regarding the statistical viability of currently unconfirmed conspiracies (no leaked documents) by way of currently known conspiracies (documents have been leaked).  The primary purpose of this initial research is to gather particular information, specifically how many people were involved in the actual conspiracies and the length of time which these conspiracies took place.  If you have not read the first post, you should read it here.

You've probably heard of Area 51, especially if you're an American.  After all, I don't think the rest of the world has the same kind of fetish for the base and the conspiracies around it that America has, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least that Americans are more likely to have heard of this location than the rest of the world.

You will no longer exist.
You will never have existed.
The basic gist of the most well known conspiracy theory is that Area 51 is the U.S. Air Force Base where the aliens and their space craft which crashed in Roswell, NM was taken after the cleanup of the site.  From here, the Air Force reverse-engineered the technology found on the ship and dissected the aliens, and this is how we have the vast majority of the technologies which were developed in the past 70 years.

In the vast majority of the past 70 years, the U.S. Government denied the existence of Area 51, but in 2013, the CIA released an un-redacted version of the document about the U-2 Project which confirms the existence of Area 51.  This report has been published to the public in the past, but this new release is the first instance where the existence of Area 51 has been revealed to the public.  This comes in the form of a map describing the location of the Air Force Base, just outside of North Las Vegas.

"You don't want to come here. Trust us."
-The Men in Black.
This report is 400 pages and exceedingly boring.  If you are suffering from insomnia, this report is the perfect cure.  More importantly, it does not bring up aliens, alien technology, the infamous Roswell crash or its site, or anything which the conspiracy theorists love to associate with Area 51.  Instead, the report talks about the affects of a new type of plane called the U-2 has on the pilots.  This report is basically just specifications, tests, and test locations of the new type of plane.

I know that there will be people who will associate the U-2 plane with alien technology, bringing about the same theory which is associated with the ancient Egyptians being able to build the pyramids.  The thought is "I can't imagine we are capable of designing such things, therefor Aliens".  Namely, us reverse-engineering technology from alien craft and using what we learned to develop Earthly technologies.

Trust me; I'm from the History Channel!
My goal is not to debunk that particular hypothesis (though for every claimed leak in favor, there's a leak rejecting it), just to say that if the reverse-engineering hypothesis is true, that particular information has not been leaked by credible sources yet.  The conspiracy which was leaked is the legitimate leak of the existence of Area 51.  It is still highly secretive, requiring high clearance just to enter the facility, but at least the government actually admits to its existence now.

There have been reports that Area 51 officially began in 1955, but began under the designation Indian Springs Air Force Auxiliary Field in 1942.  For those of you keeping track of the statistics, I will be using 1942 as the start time, as the aforementioned U-2 testing and experiments began in 1954, before the proposed 1955 start time of Area 51.  With the 712 people involved with the base, the minimum probability of leak per person per year is 1.3740E-05, bringing the average to 1.0925E-4 and a standard deviation of 2.7607E-4.  Assuming that the 1955 figure is the truth, then that changes these values, which can be seen on the Google Sheet I have developed for this series.

Take that as you will.
-K. Alan Eister

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